2026 Richmond election · public data
Richmond election data monitor
Candidates, historical votes and external forecast signals are labelled separately. This page never treats online buzz as a poll, and never mistakes councillor multi-vote totals for mayor-style support rates.
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Traceable signal
Mayor external win probability
A thin-market contract price shown only as an external signal; it is not a poll and not a projected vote share.
Official candidate records
Candidate profiles & data
"City system addition" means the record has appeared in the City's candidate API but not yet on the published list page.
Error audit
Modelling mistakes this page avoids
Mixing vote systems
Mayor is a one-person, one-vote race; each voter can pick up to eight councillors. The two percentages cannot be compared or normalized directly.
Online buzz as support
Search, news and social signals measure attention only, and are skewed by advertising, bots and platform demographics.
Cross-level vote transfer
Provincial and federal boundaries and party effects differ from municipal races; that history is background only, never converted into a municipal vote count.
Ranking an incomplete list
Candidates added or withdrawn before the nomination and withdrawal deadlines change both the ranking and any win probability.
Data coverage
Historical database & method
History data JSON · District relationships JSON · Latest model JSON · Method report · Compliance review
This is an independent public data project. It does not recommend, oppose or represent any candidate. Candidate biographies are self-submitted to the City; for official ballot information use City of Richmond Elections.