# Richmond Election Model Status

Generated: 2026-09-06T22:51:16.564455+00:00

Public-source analysis only. No candidate is endorsed or opposed.

## Current result

The page publishes verified historical baselines, a 2026 turnout-scenario model, and a separately labelled, low-confidence external market signal for Mayor. Councillor and School Trustee vote-count scenarios are a flat-share arithmetic projection, not a poll-based forecast; Mayor has no such scenario because no 2026 candidate has run for that office before.

## Model corrections

- Nomination period remains open; the candidate universe is not final.
- The City published page and official profile API are out of sync.
- Polymarket includes names outside the current City system and placeholder contracts; those rows are excluded.
- No representative Richmond voter poll has been ingested; projected_votes_2026 is a flat-share arithmetic scenario, not a poll-based prediction.
- Council support rates and mayor vote shares use different denominators and are never combined.
- Turnout-rate scenarios are reasoned brackets built from Richmond's own 2011-2022 range and the 2026 open-seat context, not a statistical model fit to polling data.

## 2026 turnout scenarios

Eligible-elector base for 2026 is trend-extrapolated by compounding the City's own 2018-to-2022 back-calculated growth rate (ballots cast / official turnout %) forward one more 4-year cycle. Turnout-rate scenarios are reasoned brackets, not a statistical forecast: Low assumes participation stays near 2022's incumbent-dominated race; Base reverts to the 2014/2018 average from Richmond's last competitive mayoral races; High assumes the current five-candidate open race drives turnout modestly above Richmond's historical maximum. See context_2026 in history.json for the open-seat driver and richmond_municipal_turnout_series for the source figures.

Estimated 2026 eligible electors: 157,462

| Scenario | Turnout % | Projected ballots cast |
|---|---:|---:|
| low | 27.0% | 42,515 |
| base | 34.5% | 54,324 |
| high | 39.0% | 61,410 |

## Current candidates

| Office | Formal name | Published status | Historical baseline | Projected votes 2026 (low / base / high) | External win signal |
|---|---|---|---:|---:|---:|
| Mayor | Alexa Loo | official_system_pending_page | — | — | 25.5% |
| Mayor | Dickens Cheung | published_list | — | — | 0.1% |
| Mayor | Kash Heed | official_system_pending_page | — | — | 42.0% |
| Mayor | Mei Kang | published_list | — | — | 2.2% |
| Mayor | Rob Howard | published_list | — | — | 2.2% |
| Councillor | Alex Sagert | official_system_pending_page | — | — | — |
| Councillor | Alton Cheung | published_list | — | — | — |
| Councillor | Andy Hobbs | published_list | 12,760 (36.4%) | 15,475 / 19,774 / 22,353 | — |
| Councillor | Andy Z. Wang | published_list | — | — | — |
| Councillor | Antonio "Tony" Ortega | published_list | — | — | — |
| Councillor | Bob Basanti | official_system_pending_page | — | — | — |
| Councillor | Dr. Mike Gill | published_list | — | — | — |
| Councillor | Edward He | official_system_pending_page | — | — | — |
| Councillor | Gary Law | official_system_pending_page | — | — | — |
| Councillor | Howard Jampolsky | published_list | — | — | — |
| Councillor | Jeff Jiang | official_system_pending_page | — | — | — |
| Councillor | Jenny Gonzales Mata | published_list | — | — | — |
| Councillor | Jerome Dickey | published_list | 8,797 (25.1%) | 10,671 / 13,635 / 15,414 | — |
| Councillor | Jessy Dhillon | published_list | — | — | — |
| Councillor | Karen Novorr-Pezzuto | official_system_pending_page | — | — | — |
| Councillor | Keefer Pelech | official_system_pending_page | 5,993 (17.1%) | 7,270 / 9,289 / 10,501 | — |
| Councillor | Louis Huang | official_system_pending_page | — | — | — |
| Councillor | Mario Cruz | published_list | — | — | — |
| Councillor | Melissa Zhang | published_list | 5,936 (16.9%) | 7,185 / 9,181 / 10,378 | — |
| Councillor | Michael Lok | published_list | — | — | — |
| Councillor | Michael Wolfe | published_list | 12,953 (36.9%) | 15,688 / 20,046 / 22,660 | — |
| Councillor | Milly Yee | official_system_pending_page | — | — | — |
| Councillor | Romeo Bicego | published_list | — | — | — |
| Councillor | Sam Wang | official_system_pending_page | — | — | — |
| Councillor | Shelley Leonhardt | published_list | — | — | — |
| School Trustee | Heather Larson | official_system_pending_page | 13,475 (38.4%) | 16,326 / 20,860 / 23,581 | — |
| School Trustee | Helen Quan | published_list | — | — | — |
| School Trustee | Lawrence Chen | published_list | — | — | — |