{ "schema_version": "2.1", "generated_at": "2026-09-06T22:51:16.564455+00:00", "status": "scenario_estimates_published", "legal_posture": "informational data analysis; no endorsement or opposition", "candidate_counts": { "published_page": 20, "official_system": 33 }, "turnout_2026": { "estimated_eligible_electors_2026": 157462, "eligible_elector_growth_2018_to_2022_percent": 9.5, "historical_turnout_percent": { "2011": 23.74, "2014": 32.4, "2018": 36.86, "2022": 24.4 }, "scenarios": { "low": { "turnout_percent": 27.0, "projected_ballots_cast": 42515 }, "base": { "turnout_percent": 34.5, "projected_ballots_cast": 54324 }, "high": { "turnout_percent": 39.0, "projected_ballots_cast": 61410 } }, "method": "Eligible-elector base for 2026 is trend-extrapolated by compounding the City's own 2018-to-2022 back-calculated growth rate (ballots cast / official turnout %) forward one more 4-year cycle. Turnout-rate scenarios are reasoned brackets, not a statistical forecast: Low assumes participation stays near 2022's incumbent-dominated race; Base reverts to the 2014/2018 average from Richmond's last competitive mayoral races; High assumes the current five-candidate open race drives turnout modestly above Richmond's historical maximum. See context_2026 in history.json for the open-seat driver and richmond_municipal_turnout_series for the source figures." }, "method": { "mayor": "No 2026 mayoral candidate has a historical mayoral result, so no flat-share vote scenario is computed for Mayor. External market win probability is displayed separately and is never converted into a vote count.", "council": "For each councillor/school trustee candidate with a historical municipal result, projected_votes_2026 scales that candidate's historical ballot-support rate to the estimated 2026 ballot volume under each turnout scenario (low/base/high). This is a flat-share scenario, not a poll-based forecast: it assumes no change in the candidate field, incumbency, or campaign dynamics.", "turnout": "See turnout_2026.method for how the 2026 eligible-elector base and turnout-rate scenarios are derived.", "incumbency": "Retained as a future model feature; never inferred from the City API flag because it currently marks every record false.", "online_attention": "May adjust uncertainty only after symmetric candidate coverage. It cannot substitute for voter support.", "llm": "Used for source review and classification only; it does not generate votes." }, "validation_flags": [ "Nomination period remains open; the candidate universe is not final.", "The City published page and official profile API are out of sync.", "Polymarket includes names outside the current City system and placeholder contracts; those rows are excluded.", "No representative Richmond voter poll has been ingested; projected_votes_2026 is a flat-share arithmetic scenario, not a poll-based prediction.", "Council support rates and mayor vote shares use different denominators and are never combined.", "Turnout-rate scenarios are reasoned brackets built from Richmond's own 2011-2022 range and the 2026 open-seat context, not a statistical model fit to polling data." ], "reference": { "municipal_2022_ballots_cast": 35093, "municipal_2022_turnout_percent": 24.4 }, "candidates": [ { "formal_name": "Alexa Loo", "office": "Mayor", "publication_status": "official_system_pending_page", "historical_matches": [ { "election": "richmond-municipal-2022", "date": "2022-10-15", "office": "Councillor", "votes": 13485, "elected": true, "ballots_cast": 35093 }, { "election": "bc-provincial-2020", "date": "2020-10-24", "district": "Richmond South Centre", "party": "Liberal", "votes": 6564, "valid_votes": 13307 }, { "election": "richmond-municipal-2018", "date": "2018-10-20", "office": "Councillor", "votes": 13212, "elected": true, "ballots_cast": 48412 } ], "historical_baseline_votes": null, "historical_ballot_support_percent": null, "model_status": "insufficient_candidate_evidence", "confidence": "not_estimated", "projected_votes_2026": null, "vote_projection_note": "No 2026 mayoral candidate has previously run for Richmond mayor, so there is no historical ballot-support rate to scale into a vote count. The external market win probability below is a separate, non-comparable signal and is never converted into a vote count.", "external_market_win_probability_percent": 25.5, "external_market_volume_usd": 1437.95 }, { "formal_name": "Dickens Cheung", "office": "Mayor", "publication_status": "published_list", "historical_matches": [ { "election": "bc-provincial-2024", "date": "2024-10-19", "district": "Richmond Centre", "party": "Independent", "votes": 556, "valid_votes": 16208 } ], "historical_baseline_votes": null, "historical_ballot_support_percent": null, "model_status": "insufficient_candidate_evidence", "confidence": "not_estimated", "projected_votes_2026": null, "vote_projection_note": "No 2026 mayoral candidate has previously run for Richmond mayor, so there is no historical ballot-support rate to scale into a vote count. The external market win probability below is a separate, non-comparable signal and is never converted into a vote count.", "external_market_win_probability_percent": 0.1, "external_market_volume_usd": 1650.96 }, { "formal_name": "Kash Heed", "office": "Mayor", "publication_status": "official_system_pending_page", "historical_matches": [ { "election": "richmond-municipal-2022", "date": "2022-10-15", "office": "Councillor", "votes": 10563, "elected": true, "ballots_cast": 35093 } ], "historical_baseline_votes": null, "historical_ballot_support_percent": null, "model_status": "insufficient_candidate_evidence", "confidence": "not_estimated", "projected_votes_2026": null, "vote_projection_note": "No 2026 mayoral candidate has previously run for Richmond mayor, so there is no historical ballot-support rate to scale into a vote count. The external market win probability below is a separate, non-comparable signal and is never converted into a vote count.", "external_market_win_probability_percent": 42.0, "external_market_volume_usd": 399.14 }, { "formal_name": "Mei Kang", "office": "Mayor", "publication_status": "published_list", "historical_matches": [], "historical_baseline_votes": null, "historical_ballot_support_percent": null, "model_status": "insufficient_candidate_evidence", "confidence": "not_estimated", "projected_votes_2026": null, "vote_projection_note": "No 2026 mayoral candidate has previously run for Richmond mayor, so there is no historical ballot-support rate to scale into a vote count. The external market win probability below is a separate, non-comparable signal and is never converted into a vote count.", "external_market_win_probability_percent": 2.2, "external_market_volume_usd": 125.66 }, { "formal_name": "Rob Howard", "office": "Mayor", "publication_status": "published_list", "historical_matches": [], "historical_baseline_votes": null, "historical_ballot_support_percent": null, "model_status": "insufficient_candidate_evidence", "confidence": "not_estimated", "projected_votes_2026": null, "vote_projection_note": "No 2026 mayoral candidate has previously run for Richmond mayor, so there is no historical ballot-support rate to scale into a vote count. The external market win probability below is a separate, non-comparable signal and is never converted into a vote count.", "external_market_win_probability_percent": 2.2, "external_market_volume_usd": 1203.46 }, { "formal_name": "Alex Sagert", "office": "Councillor", "publication_status": "official_system_pending_page", "historical_matches": [], "historical_baseline_votes": null, "historical_ballot_support_percent": null, "model_status": "insufficient_candidate_evidence", "confidence": "not_estimated", "projected_votes_2026": null, "vote_projection_note": "No historical municipal result for this candidate in this office, so a flat-share vote scenario cannot be computed." }, { "formal_name": "Alton Cheung", "office": "Councillor", "publication_status": "published_list", "historical_matches": [], "historical_baseline_votes": null, "historical_ballot_support_percent": null, "model_status": "insufficient_candidate_evidence", "confidence": "not_estimated", "projected_votes_2026": null, "vote_projection_note": "No historical municipal result for this candidate in this office, so a flat-share vote scenario cannot be computed." }, { "formal_name": "Andy Hobbs", "office": "Councillor", "publication_status": "published_list", "historical_matches": [ { "election": "richmond-municipal-2022", "date": "2022-10-15", "office": "Councillor", "votes": 12760, "elected": true, "ballots_cast": 35093 }, { "election": "richmond-municipal-2018", "date": "2018-10-20", "office": "Councillor", "votes": 12336, "elected": false, "ballots_cast": 48412 } ], "historical_baseline_votes": 12760, "historical_ballot_support_percent": 36.4, "model_status": "historical_baseline", "confidence": "low", "projected_votes_2026": { "low": 15475, "base": 19774, "high": 22353 }, "vote_projection_note": "Flat-share scenario: holds Andy Hobbs's most recent municipal ballot-support rate (36.4%) constant and scales it to the estimated 2026 ballot volume under each turnout scenario. It does not model a changed candidate field, incumbency, or campaign dynamics." }, { "formal_name": "Andy Z. Wang", "office": "Councillor", "publication_status": "published_list", "historical_matches": [], "historical_baseline_votes": null, "historical_ballot_support_percent": null, "model_status": "insufficient_candidate_evidence", "confidence": "not_estimated", "projected_votes_2026": null, "vote_projection_note": "No historical municipal result for this candidate in this office, so a flat-share vote scenario cannot be computed." }, { "formal_name": "Antonio \"Tony\" Ortega", "office": "Councillor", "publication_status": "published_list", "historical_matches": [], "historical_baseline_votes": null, "historical_ballot_support_percent": null, "model_status": "insufficient_candidate_evidence", "confidence": "not_estimated", "projected_votes_2026": null, "vote_projection_note": "No historical municipal result for this candidate in this office, so a flat-share vote scenario cannot be computed." }, { "formal_name": "Bob Basanti", "office": "Councillor", "publication_status": "official_system_pending_page", "historical_matches": [], "historical_baseline_votes": null, "historical_ballot_support_percent": null, "model_status": "insufficient_candidate_evidence", "confidence": "not_estimated", "projected_votes_2026": null, "vote_projection_note": "No historical municipal result for this candidate in this office, so a flat-share vote scenario cannot be computed." }, { "formal_name": "Dr. Mike Gill", "office": "Councillor", "publication_status": "published_list", "historical_matches": [], "historical_baseline_votes": null, "historical_ballot_support_percent": null, "model_status": "insufficient_candidate_evidence", "confidence": "not_estimated", "projected_votes_2026": null, "vote_projection_note": "No historical municipal result for this candidate in this office, so a flat-share vote scenario cannot be computed." }, { "formal_name": "Edward He", "office": "Councillor", "publication_status": "official_system_pending_page", "historical_matches": [], "historical_baseline_votes": null, "historical_ballot_support_percent": null, "model_status": "insufficient_candidate_evidence", "confidence": "not_estimated", "projected_votes_2026": null, "vote_projection_note": "No historical municipal result for this candidate in this office, so a flat-share vote scenario cannot be computed." }, { "formal_name": "Gary Law", "office": "Councillor", "publication_status": "official_system_pending_page", "historical_matches": [], "historical_baseline_votes": null, "historical_ballot_support_percent": null, "model_status": "insufficient_candidate_evidence", "confidence": "not_estimated", "projected_votes_2026": null, "vote_projection_note": "No historical municipal result for this candidate in this office, so a flat-share vote scenario cannot be computed." }, { "formal_name": "Howard Jampolsky", "office": "Councillor", "publication_status": "published_list", "historical_matches": [], "historical_baseline_votes": null, "historical_ballot_support_percent": null, "model_status": "insufficient_candidate_evidence", "confidence": "not_estimated", "projected_votes_2026": null, "vote_projection_note": "No historical municipal result for this candidate in this office, so a flat-share vote scenario cannot be computed." }, { "formal_name": "Jeff Jiang", "office": "Councillor", "publication_status": "official_system_pending_page", "historical_matches": [], "historical_baseline_votes": null, "historical_ballot_support_percent": null, "model_status": "insufficient_candidate_evidence", "confidence": "not_estimated", "projected_votes_2026": null, "vote_projection_note": "No historical municipal result for this candidate in this office, so a flat-share vote scenario cannot be computed." }, { "formal_name": "Jenny Gonzales Mata", "office": "Councillor", "publication_status": "published_list", "historical_matches": [], "historical_baseline_votes": null, "historical_ballot_support_percent": null, "model_status": "insufficient_candidate_evidence", "confidence": "not_estimated", "projected_votes_2026": null, "vote_projection_note": "No historical municipal result for this candidate in this office, so a flat-share vote scenario cannot be computed." }, { "formal_name": "Jerome Dickey", "office": "Councillor", "publication_status": "published_list", "historical_matches": [ { "election": "richmond-municipal-2022", "date": "2022-10-15", "office": "Councillor", "votes": 8797, "elected": false, "ballots_cast": 35093 } ], "historical_baseline_votes": 8797, "historical_ballot_support_percent": 25.1, "model_status": "historical_baseline", "confidence": "low", "projected_votes_2026": { "low": 10671, "base": 13635, "high": 15414 }, "vote_projection_note": "Flat-share scenario: holds Jerome Dickey's most recent municipal ballot-support rate (25.1%) constant and scales it to the estimated 2026 ballot volume under each turnout scenario. It does not model a changed candidate field, incumbency, or campaign dynamics." }, { "formal_name": "Jessy Dhillon", "office": "Councillor", "publication_status": "published_list", "historical_matches": [], "historical_baseline_votes": null, "historical_ballot_support_percent": null, "model_status": "insufficient_candidate_evidence", "confidence": "not_estimated", "projected_votes_2026": null, "vote_projection_note": "No historical municipal result for this candidate in this office, so a flat-share vote scenario cannot be computed." }, { "formal_name": "Karen Novorr-Pezzuto", "office": "Councillor", "publication_status": "official_system_pending_page", "historical_matches": [], "historical_baseline_votes": null, "historical_ballot_support_percent": null, "model_status": "insufficient_candidate_evidence", "confidence": "not_estimated", "projected_votes_2026": null, "vote_projection_note": "No historical municipal result for this candidate in this office, so a flat-share vote scenario cannot be computed." }, { "formal_name": "Keefer Pelech", "office": "Councillor", "publication_status": "official_system_pending_page", "historical_matches": [ { "election": "canada-federal-2025", "date": "2025-04-28", "district": "Richmond East—Steveston", "party": "New Democratic Party", "votes": 2251, "valid_votes": 53055 }, { "election": "richmond-municipal-2022", "date": "2022-10-15", "office": "Councillor", "votes": 5993, "elected": false, "ballots_cast": 35093 } ], "historical_baseline_votes": 5993, "historical_ballot_support_percent": 17.1, "model_status": "historical_baseline", "confidence": "low", "projected_votes_2026": { "low": 7270, "base": 9289, "high": 10501 }, "vote_projection_note": "Flat-share scenario: holds Keefer Pelech's most recent municipal ballot-support rate (17.1%) constant and scales it to the estimated 2026 ballot volume under each turnout scenario. It does not model a changed candidate field, incumbency, or campaign dynamics." }, { "formal_name": "Louis Huang", "office": "Councillor", "publication_status": "official_system_pending_page", "historical_matches": [], "historical_baseline_votes": null, "historical_ballot_support_percent": null, "model_status": "insufficient_candidate_evidence", "confidence": "not_estimated", "projected_votes_2026": null, "vote_projection_note": "No historical municipal result for this candidate in this office, so a flat-share vote scenario cannot be computed." }, { "formal_name": "Mario Cruz", "office": "Councillor", "publication_status": "published_list", "historical_matches": [], "historical_baseline_votes": null, "historical_ballot_support_percent": null, "model_status": "insufficient_candidate_evidence", "confidence": "not_estimated", "projected_votes_2026": null, "vote_projection_note": "No historical municipal result for this candidate in this office, so a flat-share vote scenario cannot be computed." }, { "formal_name": "Melissa Zhang", "office": "Councillor", "publication_status": "published_list", "historical_matches": [ { "election": "richmond-municipal-2022", "date": "2022-10-15", "office": "Councillor", "votes": 5936, "elected": false, "ballots_cast": 35093 }, { "election": "richmond-municipal-2018", "date": "2018-10-20", "office": "Councillor", "votes": 7078, "elected": false, "ballots_cast": 48412 } ], "historical_baseline_votes": 5936, "historical_ballot_support_percent": 16.9, "model_status": "historical_baseline", "confidence": "low", "projected_votes_2026": { "low": 7185, "base": 9181, "high": 10378 }, "vote_projection_note": "Flat-share scenario: holds Melissa Zhang's most recent municipal ballot-support rate (16.9%) constant and scales it to the estimated 2026 ballot volume under each turnout scenario. It does not model a changed candidate field, incumbency, or campaign dynamics." }, { "formal_name": "Michael Lok", "office": "Councillor", "publication_status": "published_list", "historical_matches": [], "historical_baseline_votes": null, "historical_ballot_support_percent": null, "model_status": "insufficient_candidate_evidence", "confidence": "not_estimated", "projected_votes_2026": null, "vote_projection_note": "No historical municipal result for this candidate in this office, so a flat-share vote scenario cannot be computed." }, { "formal_name": "Michael Wolfe", "office": "Councillor", "publication_status": "published_list", "historical_matches": [ { "election": "richmond-municipal-2022", "date": "2022-10-15", "office": "Councillor", "votes": 12953, "elected": true, "ballots_cast": 35093 }, { "election": "richmond-municipal-2018", "date": "2018-10-20", "office": "Councillor", "votes": 13627, "elected": true, "ballots_cast": 48412 } ], "historical_baseline_votes": 12953, "historical_ballot_support_percent": 36.9, "model_status": "historical_baseline", "confidence": "low", "projected_votes_2026": { "low": 15688, "base": 20046, "high": 22660 }, "vote_projection_note": "Flat-share scenario: holds Michael Wolfe's most recent municipal ballot-support rate (36.9%) constant and scales it to the estimated 2026 ballot volume under each turnout scenario. It does not model a changed candidate field, incumbency, or campaign dynamics." }, { "formal_name": "Milly Yee", "office": "Councillor", "publication_status": "official_system_pending_page", "historical_matches": [], "historical_baseline_votes": null, "historical_ballot_support_percent": null, "model_status": "insufficient_candidate_evidence", "confidence": "not_estimated", "projected_votes_2026": null, "vote_projection_note": "No historical municipal result for this candidate in this office, so a flat-share vote scenario cannot be computed." }, { "formal_name": "Romeo Bicego", "office": "Councillor", "publication_status": "published_list", "historical_matches": [], "historical_baseline_votes": null, "historical_ballot_support_percent": null, "model_status": "insufficient_candidate_evidence", "confidence": "not_estimated", "projected_votes_2026": null, "vote_projection_note": "No historical municipal result for this candidate in this office, so a flat-share vote scenario cannot be computed." }, { "formal_name": "Sam Wang", "office": "Councillor", "publication_status": "official_system_pending_page", "historical_matches": [], "historical_baseline_votes": null, "historical_ballot_support_percent": null, "model_status": "insufficient_candidate_evidence", "confidence": "not_estimated", "projected_votes_2026": null, "vote_projection_note": "No historical municipal result for this candidate in this office, so a flat-share vote scenario cannot be computed." }, { "formal_name": "Shelley Leonhardt", "office": "Councillor", "publication_status": "published_list", "historical_matches": [], "historical_baseline_votes": null, "historical_ballot_support_percent": null, "model_status": "insufficient_candidate_evidence", "confidence": "not_estimated", "projected_votes_2026": null, "vote_projection_note": "No historical municipal result for this candidate in this office, so a flat-share vote scenario cannot be computed." }, { "formal_name": "Heather Larson", "office": "School Trustee", "publication_status": "official_system_pending_page", "historical_matches": [ { "election": "richmond-municipal-2022", "date": "2022-10-15", "office": "School Trustee", "votes": 13475, "elected": true, "ballots_cast": 35093 }, { "election": "richmond-municipal-2018", "date": "2018-10-20", "office": "School Trustee", "votes": 13258, "elected": true, "ballots_cast": 48412 } ], "historical_baseline_votes": 13475, "historical_ballot_support_percent": 38.4, "model_status": "historical_baseline", "confidence": "low", "projected_votes_2026": { "low": 16326, "base": 20860, "high": 23581 }, "vote_projection_note": "Flat-share scenario: holds Heather Larson's most recent municipal ballot-support rate (38.4%) constant and scales it to the estimated 2026 ballot volume under each turnout scenario. It does not model a changed candidate field, incumbency, or campaign dynamics." }, { "formal_name": "Helen Quan", "office": "School Trustee", "publication_status": "published_list", "historical_matches": [], "historical_baseline_votes": null, "historical_ballot_support_percent": null, "model_status": "insufficient_candidate_evidence", "confidence": "not_estimated", "projected_votes_2026": null, "vote_projection_note": "No historical municipal result for this candidate in this office, so a flat-share vote scenario cannot be computed." }, { "formal_name": "Lawrence Chen", "office": "School Trustee", "publication_status": "published_list", "historical_matches": [ { "election": "richmond-municipal-2018", "date": "2018-10-20", "office": "Mayor", "votes": 1260, "elected": false, "ballots_cast": 48412 } ], "historical_baseline_votes": null, "historical_ballot_support_percent": null, "model_status": "insufficient_candidate_evidence", "confidence": "not_estimated", "projected_votes_2026": null, "vote_projection_note": "No historical municipal result for this candidate in this office, so a flat-share vote scenario cannot be computed." } ] }